Saturday, December 3, 2016

November 2016 Unemployment Numbers

No matter which side of the aisle you're on, this is good news for all of us.  But, given that it's an NPR promotional piece, it should be viewed with moderated optimism.

In order to have a legitimate recovery...one in which less fortunate Americans participate...we have to add between 225,000-250,000 jobs per month.  That's not a Rick Number...that's what the current administration said when they pushed for the $700,000,000...which grew to 1Trillion+... stimulus package in 2009.  So please view the 178k adds in that light.  Additionally, the raw number isn't adjusted for seasonal hiring, though the rate is.

And, as others have pointed out, for political reasons the administration still seems slow to acknowledge, and focus on, our fellow Americans who have become so discouraged that they have resigned from the labor force, and those limited to PT roles though they seek FT employment.  They compose the more important (IMO) unemployment metric known as U6.  Of the estimated 0.3 improvement in Nov. unemployment, fully 0.1 of that drop is attributed to our fellow Americans giving up...226,000 of them.  Compare that to the 178,000 new jobs created and you get a more detailed picture of what's happening.  (The numbers seem off because some folks move from the U3 group to other groups 'short' of the U6 category)  And while it is true that U6 includes individuals who have 'retired' earlier than we anticipate, and that could be a great thing depending on the circumstances, there's another number we should weigh when we talk about our economy - the number of Americans receiving means-tested transfer payments ('welfare') in order to make ends meet.

We have 79 federal means-tested programs that fall under the 'welfare' umbrella, so it's nearly impossible to determine exactly how many Americans fall in the category, but the most reliable numbers I can find are somewhere between          90 -100,000,000 people.  That includes all ages.  It doesn't include anybody who is receiving State or local 'welfare' but not receiving Federal.  My guess is that number is insignificant, though.  It also doesn't include anybody receiving 'entitlement' programs like SS retirement and similar benefits individuals paid into over their working career.

Again, falling unemployment is a good sign.  Just remember a LOT of people aren't seeing the benefits of the recovery.  And a LOT of people are only getting by because of our social safety nets.  Safe to say some of them made up the Trumpsters who have had enough of being marginalized by what they see as a corrupt system.

No comments:

Post a Comment