Dead Mandate = Checkmate?

The most contentious part of "Obamacare" is the individual mandate, requiring that everybody either obtain HC insurance or pay a fee.   It is also the central issue the SC will decide on later this month.  The rationale for the mandate is that, without it, too many folks won't buy insurance until they actually need it, and since another portion of the act essentially does away with pre-existing conditions, the economics simply don't work out for insurance companies.  Insurance isn't profitable if it becomes "on demand care" without any prior premiums being paid.  And so, conventional wisdom is that if the SC strikes down the mandate, Obamacare is dead.


But what if President Obama announced, prior to the SC decision, that he was going to pull the mandate out?  That people wouldn't be required to either obtain insurance or pay a penalty?  Then what?  Exactly what would the Republicans' response be?  "Oh no, you have to have the mandate or else folks won't buy insurance?"  Ok, so they don't buy insurance until they need it.  Who looses with that proposition - the insurance carriers or their customers?   If the mandate is removed but the ban on pre-existing conditions stays, you still get a huge number of folks covered but at a huge financial cost to carriers.  Their only response will be to either raise rates on the insured, thereby encouraging them to join the uninsured until they need care, or go out of business.  And if they fold, it will send more customers to either the insurance exchanges or what will inevitably develop if the exchanges are deemed insufficient, a government plan for those who don't qualify for CMS coverage.


I don't support the PPARA, in large part due to the mandate.  But the reality is that if the SC strikes down the mandate but leaves the rest standing, or the President removes the mandate, Republicans and conservatives are going to win the battle but lose the war.

Let's hope the President doesn't realize he's only a few moves away from checkmate.